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Informational only — not betting advice.
PL·Premier League

Arsenal vs Coventry

Arsenal

vs

Coventry

Fri, 21 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

3–0

Away cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 15 Aug 2026 22:20:20 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Fri, 21 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Fri, 21 Aug 2026 22:23:06 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
79%
Draw
15%
Away
6%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

42%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

49%

No

51%

Picked No · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #12-015%
  2. #23-012%
  3. #31-012%
Score probability field for Arsenal versus Coventry

Picked 2-0 · Actual 3-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Arsenal

Last 5 overall

4W · 0D · 1L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Home split

4W · 1D · 0L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 0.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

14 of 204

Defence rank

9 of 204

Model reference group: PL

Away team

Coventry

Cold start

Last 5 overall

3W · 2D · 0L

5 matches · 2.6 scored · 0.6 conceded per match

Away split

3W · 2D · 0L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 0.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

129 of 204

Defence rank

156 of 204

Model reference group: PL