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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Vallecano vs Alaves

Vallecano

vs

Alaves

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZThu, 13 Aug 2026 22:40:12 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Thu, 20 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Fri, 21 Aug 2026 06:34:38 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
46%
Draw
30%
Away
24%

Picked Home · Actual Draw

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

65%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

50%

No

50%

Picked No · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-015%
  2. #21-113%
  3. #30-013%
Score probability field for Vallecano versus Alaves

Picked 1-0 · Actual 1-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Vallecano

Last 5 overall

3W · 2D · 0L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 0.6 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 2D · 0L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 0.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

143 of 204

Defence rank

40 of 204

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Alaves

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 2D · 1L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

126 of 204

Defence rank

88 of 204

Model reference group: PD