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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Ath Madrid vs Malaga

Ath Madrid

vs

Malaga

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–0

Away cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZWed, 12 Aug 2026 22:39:40 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Wed, 19 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Wed, 19 Aug 2026 22:23:17 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
71%
Draw
19%
Away
10%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

44%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

52%

No

48%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

WIN
  1. #12-013%
  2. #21-011%
  3. #33-010%
Score probability field for Ath Madrid versus Malaga

Picked 2-0 · Actual 2-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Ath Madrid

Last 5 overall

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 0.8 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Home split

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

22 of 204

Defence rank

35 of 204

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Malaga

Cold start

Last 5 overall

1W · 0D · 4L

5 matches · 0.8 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 1D · 4L

5 matches · 0.8 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

160 of 204

Defence rank

102 of 204

Model reference group: PD