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Informational only — not betting advice.
ELC·Championship

Cardiff vs Wrexham

Cardiff

vs

Wrexham

Mon, 17 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–1

Home cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZMon, 10 Aug 2026 22:36:31 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Mon, 17 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Mon, 17 Aug 2026 22:22:42 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
40%
Draw
25%
Away
35%

Picked Home · Actual Draw

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

43%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

59%

No

41%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

WIN
  1. #11-112%
  2. #22-19%
  3. #31-28%
Score probability field for Cardiff versus Wrexham

Picked 1-1 · Actual 1-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Cardiff

Cold start

Last 5 overall

0W · 2D · 3L

5 matches · 0.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Home split

0W · 3D · 2L

5 matches · 0.6 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

120 of 204

Defence rank

151 of 204

Model reference group: ELC

Away team

Wrexham

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

71 of 204

Defence rank

163 of 204

Model reference group: ELC