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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Santander vs Villarreal

Santander

vs

Villarreal

Sun, 16 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–2

Home cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260803T062200ZSun, 09 Aug 2026 22:29:55 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZMon, 10 Aug 2026 22:36:31 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 16 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 16 Aug 2026 22:20:03 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
27%
Draw
26%
Away
47%

Picked Away · Actual Draw

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

49%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

56%

No

44%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-112%
  2. #20-110%
  3. #31-29%
Score probability field for Santander versus Villarreal

Picked 1-1 · Actual 2-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Santander

Cold start

Last 5 overall

0W · 0D · 0L

0 matches · — scored · — conceded per match

Home split

0W · 0D · 0L

0 matches · — scored · — conceded per match

Attack rank

160 of 204

Defence rank

102 of 204

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Villarreal

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 2.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 0.8 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

30 of 204

Defence rank

86 of 204

Model reference group: PD