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Informational only — not betting advice.
ELC·Championship

Charlton vs Derby

Charlton

vs

Derby

Sat, 15 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260803T062200ZSat, 08 Aug 2026 22:27:32 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZMon, 10 Aug 2026 22:36:31 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 15 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 15 Aug 2026 22:20:13 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
32%
Draw
30%
Away
38%

Picked Away · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

63%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

51%

No

49%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-114%
  2. #20-112%
  3. #30-012%
Score probability field for Charlton versus Derby

Picked 1-1 · Actual 2-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Charlton

Last 5 overall

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Home split

1W · 0D · 4L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

177 of 204

Defence rank

124 of 204

Model reference group: ELC

Away team

Derby

Last 5 overall

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

109 of 204

Defence rank

122 of 204

Model reference group: ELC